Sunday, May 18, 2008

One in a Million (or more)

Hmmm... the jackpot prize for the 6/49 lottery just went past the 100 million peso mark. The part of my brain that deals with logic and math says it's a bad bet. The odds of winning is 1 in 14 million (actually 13,983,816) and considering that the pay per bet has now been doubled to 20 pesos (and considering also how some of the payout for getting some of combinations rights, i.e. 5 of 6, 4 of 6 etc, weren't doubled even though the bet was, the payout is worse now,) the jackpot prize should at least be at 280 million for the payout to equal the odds. The gambler in me that relies on luck and fate will be placing a bet the next draw. sigh... (as if knowing the odds will make it more likely for me to win, meh!)

Still, I guess I can wait until the 6/42 or 6/45 draws to reach the hundred million mark, of course, these take more time, and the jackpot tends to get taken before it reaches those numbers. Easier to believe because odds of winning are better at 1 in 5,245,786 and 1 in 8,145,060, respectively, and at a more affordable price per bet of 10 pesos.

What I'm not going to do is bet on the planned new lottery scheme where people get to pick 5 numbers out of 55, and another number from 1 to 10 to make a combination (odds are about 1 in 35 million) and with a price per bet of 50 pesos and with the minimum guranteed jackpot prize of "merely" 50 million, odds are lousy. (I'm thinking the jackpot have to be at 1.75 billion to be worth it.) Man, the things the government do to make money.

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